In the Roman Catholic Church, one of the most well attended liturgies occurs on Ash Wednesday when observant and semi-observant Catholics get “ashes” in the shape of a cross on their foreheads with the priest saying to each “Remember that thou are dust and to dust thou shall return.” It is a genius sentence as believers will understand that the “dust” at the end is the prelude to eternal life while “non-believers” will acknowledge that there is only dust at the end.

Ash Wednesday begins the 40 days of Lent where believers are encouraged to practice what they preach, to fast and perform other ascetic practices to bring them closer to God, all leading to Easter Sunday and the belief in the resurrection.

The Russian Orthodox Church, which is closely aligned with the Roman Catholic Church and is the predominant church in Ukraine, does not distribute ashes but requires even stricter fasting rules during its Lent which occurs at a slightly different time than that observed in the Western church because it follows the Julian, not the Gregorian, calendar. Nevertheless, the concept of Lent is identical.

On February 24, 2022, four days before Ash Wednesday, Russia invaded Ukraine and the “ashes” it brought arose from the rubble of buildings being bombed, including a maternity hospital. This invasion proved that the past is often the prelude. In 2014, Russia invaded the Crimea which was then, but is no longer, a part of Ukraine. The American response under President Obama and that of the rest of the West to the invasion of the Crimea could only have emboldened Vladimir Putin as it was the equivalent of “Hey, you shouldn’t have done that.”

This time it was different. President Biden has been called “Sleepy Joe.” Unlike Obama, however, he was not asleep at the switch. Indeed, he orchestrated a free world response to this invasion which was both dramatic and unprecedented. The Russian economy is in freefall because of the Western sanctions and its oligarchs are trying to sail their super yachts to safe harbors but are finding none in Europe. Putin’s miscalculation has effectively organized the “free” world in ways he never expected. Putin wanted Ukraine to back off from NATO but now has both Finland and Sweden talking about joining. 

But there are always dissenters. A small minority of the American left, fixated on American misdeeds, has actually justified the Putin invasion by stating that it is the end result of America encouraging Ukraine to be a part of the West which is an affront to Putin.

If one scores those on the left for their comments, they do not hold a candle to the drivel on the right. Former President Trump said: “I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, ‘this is genius.’  Putin declared a big portion of the Ukraine … as independent.  Oh, that’s wonderful.” Fox News commentator Tucker Carlson is in the truly embarrassing position of having his comments replayed on Putin-controlled Russian TV. Republicans in Congress have not been silent. Representative Madison Cawthorn referred to President Zelensky as a “thug” while many people are comparing him to Winston Churchill rallying the British people during the Blitz.  Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who many say is the queen of “crazies,” said that the war was created by President Biden because he is “weak.”

John Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar who is a Distinguished Professor at the University of Chicago.  He belongs to the realist school of thought and has been described as the most influential realist of his generation. He predicted that the encouragement of Ukraine to join the EU and apply to NATO would result in the current mess as Russia would be forced to protect its flanks. In Mearsheimer’s view, “great” powers will always lord it over the lesser ones which they deem to be in their orbit. Hence, China and Taiwan, the United States and South America, Russia and Ukraine. In a phrase, “might makes right.” That is the way it is, always has been and always will be.

The essential problem with this view is that it equates power with proper behavior as if there were no difference. While Russia may not like a pro-western Ukraine, who says that Russia has any right to say anything about it? Russia may not like a free Hungary or a free Czechoslovakia or a free Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia but those countries surely don’t cotton to Russia either. The Hungarians saw Russian tanks in Budapest in 1956. The Czechs saw Russian tanks in Prague in 1968. The Baltic republics are only 30 years away from when the Soviet Union controlled their lives. These countries all joined NATO as soon as they could and the reason was this:  they had suffered plenty and they wanted to keep the Russians from returning.

The whole notion of “great” powers assumes that there are one or two or three “great” powers and the surrounding states are like pawns on a chessboard. However, as students of chess know, a pawn can sometimes checkmate a king. That is the story of Lech Walesa and the Solidarity Union movement in Poland. Started in 1980 at the Vladimir Lenin shipyard at Gdańsk, it led to semi-free elections in 1989 and Walesa was elected President of a now free Poland in 1990. This time around, the Russians did not send tanks but depended on their government allies in Warsaw. Between 1980 and 1989, Solidarity was outlawed under martial law, Walesa was imprisoned but nothing made a difference. Solidarity survived with the explicit help of a Polish Pope and the clandestine help of western intelligence agencies and was the first to sound the death knell of the Soviet Union.

So how will Ukraine end? Presumably, the vastly superior Russian army will “win” and President Zelensky may be executed. But if he is executed, the fight will have only just begun as he has become the Winston Churchill/Lech Walesa of his country. The Russians can say all they want about how Ukraine is part of Russia but Ukraine has always resisted. Stalin detested the Ukrainian farmers who did not reach their quota of crops when his 5 Year Plan, depending on collective farms, proved a bust. Solution: order grain out of Ukraine and let at least 4,000,000 Ukrainians starve to death. The Ukrainians call this genocide Holodomor (Death By Hunger) and it is commemorated on Holodomor Memorial Day, the 4th Saturday of November, with a minute of silence at 4 PM with flags at half-mast. Ukrainians have never forgotten.

Hopefully, we have learned a few things out of this debacle. First, there is a great danger if we only believe that “might makes right.” Second, while any country has to be prudent in responding to such actions as are now occurring in Ukraine, there are any number of actions in our financially interconnected world that can make an important difference. And, in this case, they already have. Third, freedom is an aphrodisiac for the human soul. Once loosed, it cannot be contained.

Ukraine knows freedom and how to fight for it.  In 2014, months of popular protests swept pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych from office when he reneged on his promise to sign long anticipated association and trade agreements with the European Union. Instead he decided to expand ties with Russia. In the end, Yanukovych scurried home to Moscow in order to avoid a slew of criminal charges. This is known as the Maidan Revolution (Revolution of Dignity) and is featured in a documentary entitled Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom now streaming on Netflix.

There is a reason that the “free world” will always triumph over the authoritarian world. Neither Russia nor China has an immigration problem since people are not trying to get in but, rather, trying to get out.

Russia has given the world majestic music and wonderful literature and poetry. Putin’s Russia has given the world nothing but war (Syria, now Ukraine) and has allowed him to enrich himself and his oligarch buddies. The “great” power, Russia, is, in the late John McCain’s words, “A gas station run by a mafia that is masquerading as a country.”

So, in this season of Lent, we can only pray that the present mess ends well and that Ukraine survives without mounds of ashes.