On the eve of the election, all the polls agreed:  Joe Biden would win the popular vote by 10 to 11 points.  The pollsters assured everyone that the mistakes of 2016 had been corrected and that these polls were indeed correct.  It appeared that the “blue wave” was coming and that the Democrats would pick up House seats, and had a more than decent chance of a Senate majority.  Perhaps more importantly, a number of state legislatures would be “flipped” which would give Democrats the opportunity to draw favorable Congressional Districts once the Census was completed.

And then the votes were counted.  Joe Biden got 51% of the popular vote and Donald Trump received 49% (it may end up 52-48).  Biden squeaked out wins in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania to win the Electoral College.  One legislature (New Hampshire) did “flip” but it flipped from Democratic leadership to Republican.

So what happened?  It turns out that Trump’s prediction was more accurate than the pollsters.  He said he would win and, even though he didn’t, he was a lot closer than any poll, all of which predicted an historic and resounding defeat, an outcome I desired.

I am a “never Trumper.”  When he came down the escalator, I told my wife that he was the Devil and, by that, I sincerely meant the “real” Devil.  But having said that, one has to recognize his appeal.  For all of those left behind by neoliberal Davos-inspired economic policies, he appeared to have answers.  His bellicose attitude toward China was long overdue.

If he was not Trump and the Swedes were not the Swedes, a Nobel Peace Prize might have been merited.  Imagine if President Obama had arranged for three Muslim countries (United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and the Sudan) to recognize Israel’s right to exist and begin economic relations.  If that had occurred, Obama’s Nobel Peace prize would have been earned.  But, of course, Obama would not have worked that deal because it went against the accepted international paradigm calling for a 2 state solution with the Palestinians in agreement before anything could happen.

Trump ignored and broke all the accepted rules.  He unilaterally favored Israel, effectively ignored the Palestinians, cozied up to the murderous Saudi Crown Prince, moved the United States Embassy to Jerusalem, recognized Israel’s dominion over the Golan Heights and still managed to bring three Muslim states into Israel’s fold joining Egypt and Jordan.

A Jewish-American supporter of Israel, watching this all unfold, might well have voted for Trump.  One of my wife’s dearest childhood friends absolutely detests Trump but voted for him because, living in Arizona, she saw the effects of illegal immigration.  Another Arizonan, a 60 year old Mexican immigrant, also voted for Trump on the basis that the newer immigrants should have to obey the rules that he followed.  Trump substantially improved the percentage of Hispanic and African-American voters over what he garnered in 2016.

So the pollsters’ heralded “blue wave” did not occur.  It appears that the Republicans are likely to retain control of the Senate.  They picked up 12 seats in the House of Representatives and gained control of one State House.

If the polls were wrong in 2016, they were twice as bad this time around.  The most colorful assessment came in a Twitter posting by Sean Trende, senior election analyst for RealClearPolitics.com:  “The polls were a stinking pile of hot garbage and there’s really no two ways about it.”  In Wisconsin, the polls had Biden’s average lead at 6.7 percentage points.  The Washington Post and ABC poll gave Biden a Wisconsin lead of 17 percentage points.  He carried Wisconsin by less than a point.

So where to from here?  One common refrain is that we are too fractured to move forward and that Mitch McConnell will thwart Biden at every turn.  That is sheer nonsense.  It is clear, however, that a Biden administration (and the Democratic Party leadership) need to take into account that the country is most uncomfortable with a lurch to the left.  Biden understands this instinctively; many of the knuckleheads in the Democratic Leadership, not so much.

This is what I think President Biden and the Democratic Party need to do.

First, Biden will make an immediate splash on Day 1 by doing what he has promised: reentering the Paris Climate Treaty and reinstating the DACA Program for children brought to the United States illegally.

Second, Biden’s initial legislative agenda should be modest but it does not have to be inconsequential.  Infrastructure improvement (trains, planes and automobiles) will find bipartisan support and is sorely needed.  It may well be that there is bipartisan support for creating a citizenship path for those DACA adults brought here as children.

Third, Medicare for All should be off the table.  Biden already agrees and pledges a “public option” for those (and only those) who want it.  In a generation or two, we may have a Medicare for All system but not now.  The Democratic Party needs to resist the so-called “progressives” who, as Peggy Noonan has written, punch above their weight and scare many more people than they energize.

Fourth, the Green New Deal preached by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) should be off the table.  Again, Biden is on the right track as his “greening” is grounded in economic reality.  As energy companies like Chevron, BP and Exxon know, the future is green energy and Joe Biden understands that future well-paying jobs are green as well.  Moreover, American (not Chinese) manufacturers can produce the turbines, batteries and solar panels needed.  General Motors and Ford will welcome increased federal support for electric vehicles as will their associated unions which have always supported Biden. 

Fifth, resist all attempts to go leftward.  73 million people voted for Trump with his appeals to law and order and warnings about socialism.  For every Hispanic that the AOCs of the world brought to the electoral party, there were at least an equal number of Cuban, Venezuelan and Nicaraguan Americans who said and voted “Hell No!”

In many ways, it may be better that the “blue wave” was a ripple.  My deceased friend, Mike Busch, was the Speaker of the Maryland House of Delegates and also the best politician I ever met.  He always maintained that America was a center, slightly right, country from a political point of view.  He was a liberal Democrat but he understood that the majority may not agree with him so that the Democrats had to occupy the “middle” in order to remain viable.  The “middle” is where most people are and where they are comfortable. 

The long night of Trump is over.  One should not be surprised by his lack of civility once his defeat became clear.  Always the petulant narcissist, he will continue to peddle the fantasy that the election was stolen from him.  Unfortunately, many of his supporters will believe him.  However, the overwhelming majority of Americans understand that he is promulgating “fake news”.

Welcome back to normal.